Georgia State +120 2.5% play

I think the wrong team is favored here despite the fact that we have a 3-0 team vs. an 0-3 team.  60% of the tickets are on Coastal Carolina, a team that has developed a bit of a brand name with their play the last few years and return their QB Grayson McCall, but they lost a ton of players from last year’s team and while they are off to the 3-0 start it’s a bit misleading having beat Army (home), Army doesn’t see spread pass first offenses often and struggle when they do, Gardner Webb, and Buffalo.  Georgia State meanwhile had two games against P5 opponents South Carolina, and North Carolina to start the season and nearly upset North Carolina, and then last week they played Charlotte and lost 41-42, which doesn’t shock me when they had Coastal on deck and just came off the brutal stretch to open the season.  They held leads in the second half in all 3 games, while Coastal has had to rally in all 3 of their wins.  This will be their first game on the road making it a more challenging proposition should they get down in this game.

Georgia State should be able to run the ball here, and control the game.  They started last season with a brutal schedule as well facing Army, UNC, Auburn, APP State, and went 1-4, but finished 4-1 including a win over Coastal Carolina.  This team returns 15 starters, but 17 of their 22 are upper classmen compared to Coastal Carolina’s 7.  They’re led by a 5th year dual threat Sr. QB in Grainger.

I’m betting on public perception, and what I perceive is value, and I think we have a hungrier team, that should be favorite, but isn’t because they’re 0-3..  I see them as a desperate team here with a tough stretch ahead so this game is almost a must win, and it’s also challenging for Coastal to have to travel on the short week.

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