BYU -6.5 1.1% Free Play
I feel like this is a cheap line on BYU here, a team with 2 losses on the season. It sounds square, but with 10,000+ tickets 67% of the money is on UAB. This team has one loss against Boise State, a game they were -4 TO margin in, they were + TO margin in 10 of their 12 games. The other game was on the road for the Big 12 Champion Baylor, a team that had many on their staff that was previously on BYU staff and very familiar with BYU, and HC Sitake. The line dipping below 7 is largely part of some missing starters, but the losses in my opinion are not significant. BYU has to feel disrespected to play in this bowl game, but I don’t see them not being interested. Sitake, said they had a target on their back, and that they are still excited to play. They were 6-0 vs. P5 opponents this season and I think they deserved a better game. BYU has faced two top 30 YPP defenses like UAB, and they went 2-0 with wins of 9 and 10 points against Utah and Arizona State. Both of those defenses are better than UAB, and had faced tougher offensive opponents. For example, UAB ranks 46th in success rate defense, but they have faced an average success rate offense ranking 85th, compare that to Utah who ranks 32nd, and has faced an average success rate offense of 43rd. BYU ranks 10th in success rate, and can beat you running and throwing the ball. UAB only faced three teams in top 61 in success rate, went 0-3 in those games allowing an average of 42 points, and giving up 34 or more in each.
UAB, and Bill Clark have done a phenomenal job since bringing this program back in 2017. The one thing they have failed to do is win their step-up games. Their last 5 seasons they have played 5 Power 5 opponents, and have lost by 51, 17, 23, 21, and 29. Their best offensive player Dewayne McBride is not 100%, and questionable. I have heard the players and fans are a bit angry the game is 6 hours away in Shreeport, Louisiana. They wanted the game in Mobile, which was a lot closer for their fans. Whether that has any impact is unknown, but important to point out the level of excitement as some fans are staying behind to watch the basketball game against West Virginia at home.
I have to address the weather, because it’s going to be a factor here with rain expected, but I think that favors a mature BYU team more than it does UAB.
