Toledo -10 3.3% play
Toledo is a far better team than their record shows. They rank top 25 in YPP offense and defense with +1.6 ypp differential compared to Middle Tennessee who is -0.2 ypp and that margin has come against an average opponent with a -0.38 ypp differential, and MTSU has been outgained on the season. Toledo's 3 conference losses all came by 3 points, and they lost by only 3 at Notre Dame. There really isn't anything impressive on MTSU's schedule and their HC Stockstill is 2-6 in bowl games. They forced 6 TO's and only won 34-28 vs. Marshall, but other than that it was not very impressive, and when they don't force more than 1 TO they are 0-4 with an average margin of loss of 14.5 points. Toledo is #1 in the nation with only 6 TO's on the season, and they are #1 in lowest percentage of posessions ending in a TO. Meanwhile MTSU is 128th, and they are on their 3rd and 4th string QB's. MTSU has relied heavily on TO's, and I don't see it happening in this game.
Toledo's offense is balanced, and since they went to freshman Dequan Finn the offense has been clicking. Finn has 16 passing TD's only 1 INT, and he's run for more than 400 yards. I think Toledo has a major advantage here, because they are a run first team, they rank 13th in ypc, and 3rd in epa, and go up against MTSU who ranks 66th in epa run defense, but when they faced good offenses they were 1-3 and gave up an average of 36 points per game. Their lone win was against Marshall and it was because they forced 6 turnovers. The average opponent rushing epa offense tMTSU faced was 75th so it was a very weak schedule and we saw the good running teams like LIberty, UTSA, Virginia Tech, and Charlotte they allowed an average 208 yards per agme and gave up 12 rushing TD's and went 0-4.
It's supposed to be windy and possible rain here in the Bahamas so expecting the team that can run the ball to really control this game, and MIddle Tennesee's offense ranks 121st in epa run offense that has come against an average opponent epa run defense ranking 79th, and Toledo ranks 31st. I really don't see where MIddle Tennessee is getting their offense here. Toledo has faced bad offenses, and are 4-0 vs. teams with poor YPP offenses and they've held those teams to 12.5 points per game, those 4 teams averaged 20.4, so they were able to hold them under their season average by over a TD, and had a margin of victory of 28.75 points. MTSU vs top defenses this season scored 13, 21, and 17 points well under their season average. So while I think Toledo's offense will be putting up points, I think their defense is a huge reason why they win this game by double digits.
Toledo also a major advantage in the red zone where they are +20% in TD% offense-defense while MTSU is -9.29%. Jason Candle, Toledo's HC has experience going to the Bahamas Bowl, in 2018 they lost as a 7 point favorite to another C-USA foe, FIU 32-35, but that was a much more even match up. FIU was actually +0.3 ypp differential while Toledo was 0 ypp differential. This season they are +1.6 compared to MTSU who is -0.2.
