UTSA +3.5 3.3% PLAY
UTSA +3.5 3.3% PLAY
Alamo Dome should be rocking Friday night in a rematch that happened at Western Kentucky earlier in the season, in what was an absolute show down 52-46, with Western Kentucky ending at the 1 yard line. UTSA off it’s first loss to a motivated North Texas team last week where HC Jeff Traylor admitted they didn’t have it early after their big win the week before that locked them into the C-USA Title game, and he pulled some starters. UTSA has a very under rated home field advantage.
Western Kentucky is a pass first offense they throw it 67% of the time behind Bailey Zappe who has put up ridiculous numbers, 52 passing TD’s 9 INT’s, and at home against Texas San Antonio he had 5 TD’s 1 INT. UTSA is a run first team running 55% of the time, but it’s not like they can’t throw it. Frank Harris, a veteran QB ranks 23rd in epa pass offense, but make no mistake this is a run first offense. Traditionally I like to back the team that runs more vs. passes more. We have seen it many times this year with the teams that throw the ball 60% or more going up against teams that run the ball 55% or more. Western Kentucky went 0-2 against those teams this year. Miss State, went 1-2, Nevada went 1-3, Purdue went 1-2, USC went 0-4. There are more examples of this.
At the end of the day these two teams are very similar metrically. They have different strengths and weaknesses, but Western Kentucky was a 3.5 point favorite at home, and now they are a 3.5 point favorite on the road and I really haven’t seen anything to justify it. I just think this is an over reaction to what happened last week against North Texas and the week before against UAB where they won by an inch, and the week before they only beat Southern Miss by 10. Western Kentucky is the flavor of the moment, they are getting 70% of the tickets, but Frank Harris threw 6 TD’s 1 INT against this Western Kentucky defense when they met the last time. I think Harris has a chip on his shoulder, I think the fact that this team lost their first game last week was a good thing. UTSA the #1 pass rush team at home in college football, they are also +8 TO margin at home, and I think they win this game.
