Troy +6.5 3.3%play / Troy +210 1% play
Troy fired their head coach, and it’s a step up game for the players to get to a bowl game and a 6th win. The DC Brandon Hall takes over, and that’s the strength of this Troy team. They rank 22nd in ypp, and they are 14th against the run. Georgia State runs the ball 63% of the time they rank 31st running the ball, but they faced top 50 rushing offenses three times this season and put up 10, 16, and 17 points. If Troy can stop the run on first down, and bring up obvious passing situations it will be a long day for Georgia State as Troy ranks 2nd in sack %, they are 38th opposing offense TO%.
Troy’s Gunnar Watson threw for over 400 yards in the 34-36 loss in this game last year, and Georgia State’s pass defense is worse. They rank 99th in epa pass defense, so I believe Troy can have enough success in that category. Watson missed time this year, but they are 3-3 since he came back, and the 3 losses were against the top 3 teams in the Sun Belt, Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, and App State. Georgia is wildly inconsistent and playing their 6th game in 6 weeks. They have been under dogs in all 8 meetings against Troy, but here they are a favorite of nearly a TD.
