Iowa +1 3.3% play

I’ve backed both of these teams quite a bit this year with success.  Nebraska has been extremely impressive for a 3 win team, arguably the best 3 win team ever, and I think they complete that by losing this game as well.  They just haven’t found a way to win, and now without Adrian Martinez going up against a top 10 defense it’s going to be even more difficult.  I don’t think the loss of Martinez is getting appropriately calculated into the number nor do I feel that Nebraska without multiple assistant coaches is.  It’s one thing to have coaches pick of the slack during a bye week like last week, but now to have to do it on a short week against a very good Iowa coaching staff is going to be a major challenge.

Iowa since Frost has came aboard has gone 3-0 winning by 3, 3, and 6 points, and these two teams really are opposites. Iowa finds ways to win, while Nebraska finds ways to lose.  The biggest difference between these two teams is special teams.  Nebraska ranks 129^th, and Iowa ranks 2^nd.  Another huge advantage for Iowa that’s not getting factored into the number is turnovers. Iowa 8^th in % of opponent posessions ending in a TO, while Nebraska ranks 70^th.  Part of the problem was Adrian Martinez, but he actualy was really good throwing the ball this season.  Now you have a RS freshman in Smothers who is a 4* dual threat QB, that is small and can’t throw as well.  Nebraska’s defense has played extremely well, but they could be without 2 starters in this game, and I think it’s just a lot to ask for this team to get back up for a game.  Iowa with a win on Friday and a Wisconsin loss on Saturday would get into the Big Ten Championship.