Northern Illinois just keeps winning especially on the road. They are not doing it in any sexy way, but they are winning games and they are in position to take their division once again with a win over Western Michigan who they have dominated with 5 straight wins and have gone 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Western Mich over achieved last week with a win over Central Michigan and I think they may even lose this game. Against the division's third place Toledo both teams played at home. Northern Illinois cruised as a 3.5 point favorite to a 3 point win while Western Michigan lost by 1 at home as a 5.5 point under dog. The market for whatever reason has been crazy about this team and the Oddsmaker's have had no choice, but to make them a heavy favorite here.
I get that they have a better run defense in a game that will be decided by who can run the ball better and Western Michigan is home and they have a QB that can stretch the field with his arm, but Northern Illinois is just flat out a better program and they have 4 extra days of rest and preparation while Western Michigan is on a short week here. I think that's a major advantage with the holidays and what not. It's also worth noting that some of the stats have to be taken with a grain of salt when you consider non-conference. Northern Illinois played UNLV, and WMU played Idaho, which is a wash. However, WMU played Purdue and Virginia Tech who are among the worst in their respective conferences while Northern Illinois played Northwestern who has big wins against Wisconsin and Notre Dame and Arkansas one of the nations hottest teams. Northern Illinois can and will run the ball in this game and WMU has faced only 2 teams in the top 70 in yards per carry all year. They have allowed 6.30 ypc in their losses and 2.99 in their wins. Northern Illinois is rushing 5.18 ypc in conference play and is ranked 31st in yards per carry. They are a team that does not make mistakes or turn the ball over and have proven they can win on the road. I'll take the points gladly in this one.
You'd think we are getting weak value here with Iowa covering against Wisconsin in impressive fashion, but not winning and Nebraska embarassing themselves again. However, I'll take the home team here as Nebraska is one dimensional on offense and whenever they play a decent defense they seem to lose. Their only win vs. a top 45 yards/play defense was against Miami early in the season at home facing a true freshman QB. Iowa is ranked 23rd while they struggle against the run they have been good enough when the opposing team can not beat them with their arm and I just don't get worried about Nebraska on the road passing the ball. I also don't think Abdullah is 100% and it's impacting Nebraska's ability to run the bal.
Jake Ruddock caught fire last game and he's been outstanding at home and has a 162 QB rating over his last 4 games. Iowa should be able to establish the run against Nebraska who is giving up over 6 yards per carry on the road. These two teams have faced 2 of the same opponents in their last 3 games and a similar level opponent in the 3rd and the stats are remarkable. Iowa is +45 yards while Nebraska is -170. Right now I just have more faith in Iowa at home where they are allowing just 30% of red zone attempts to turn into TD's.
