Iowa -175 2.5 %play
This is a buy low spot for Iowa, and that’s the time I want to buy them. This is a home game and an elimination game for the Big Ten West. Iowa lost to Purdue and Wisconsin, but they historically have issues with those two teams for various reasons. Iowa has owned Minnesota especially under PJ Fleck. They are 4-0 against Fleck and the only time Minnesota was within the number was in 2019 when Minnesota had a very good passing game and ranked #10. Iowa was really in control of that game up 20-3. There is also no love lost between these two coaches. PJ Fleck down 35-0 last year with his starters in the game against the second team of Iowa scored a late TD against Iowa’s backup defense. Ferentz used three timeouts late simply to send some sort of message.
Iowa’s offense has struggled, and with a less than 100% Petras last week, Ferentz inserted Alex Padilla at QB, and he’ll get the start this week. I don’t think it’s a bad thing for an offense that has struggled so anyone telling you they are backing Minnesota, because Petras is OUT is clueless. Padilla came in last week against Northwestern and it gave the offense a spark as he led back to back TD Scoring drives. I think the rest of the team steps up here with their starting QB out again to help Padilla.
Minnesota’s offense has not been great. They rely on the rushing attack, and are completely one dimensional. They will have a really tough time going up against Iowa’s run defense that plays the gaps better than any team. They rank #3 in epa run defense, and they back it up with the #13 epa pass defense. This is the best defense Minnesota has faced all year, and we have seen them struggle plenty against Illinois who ranked 69th in epa pass defense, and 86th in epa run defense. They struggled against Bowling Green scoring only 10 points, while Bowling Green 11th in epa pass defense they are 116th in epa run defense. Iowa has the secondary to leave on an Island and play the rush. Minnesota could also be without their best WR Bell who is ? and was injured in last game. This all sets up nicely for Iowa to do what they do best.
