Florida St +3 -115 3% play

Miami off 3 straight wins and feeling pretty confident right now and they beat FSU 52-10 last year, but Mike Norvell was not there for the game.  FSU at 3-6 more desperate team here, and I think they have some of the ingredients that Miami has struggled against this year.  Those are teams that are run first teams and are also very good at running the ball.  FSU runs it 55% of the time, and rank top 30 in ypc, and epa run.  Miami gave up 45 and 38 points to North Carolina and Michigan State, the only two teams that Miami have faced that run the ball 55%+ and are top 50 in running the ball.  Jordan Travis returns this week, he was out with illness vs. NC State, and that gives us some value here.

FSU offensively gets to face a defense that is banged up without 4 starters in the secondary including star Bubba Bolden.  Meanwhile FSU starting to get very healthy especially along the offensive line.  FSU has really been in a lot of their games this year and I expect a tight game.  FSU’s offense will be able to move the ball on offense without a problem, and if they play a clean game they will win the game.  They are + TO margin in their last 4 games while Miami ranks 119^th in TO % forced on defense, and 103^rd on offense.