UCF +7 2.2% PLAY / UCF +240 0.5% BONUS
This spread is not adjusting for the last two weeks where UCF dominated Memphis, and Memphis just beat SMU, who has now lost back to back games. Their head coach is interviewing for P5 HC jobs and is probably out after this year, and they are now two games out of the AAC Championship, and have Cincinnati on deck. I like where UCF is trending they come into this game with identical YPP numbers to Memphis, against a tougher schedule +0.7ypp, vs. -0.225, compare to Memphis +0.7 vs. -0.43. SMU is +0.8 vs. -0.75. I backed UCF over Memphis 2 weeks ago, and I backed Memphis over SMU last week so I have to back UCF over SMU here with it being +7.
The match up is a bit different than the game last week as SMU goes up against a top tier passing defense instead of a good run defense, but overall, UCF is a far better defense than Memphis. They are far better vs. the pass, which is what SMU likes to do the most. UCF also 22nd in % of possessions ending in TO’s on defense, while SMU has been turning the ball over ranking 85th in TO%. SMU really struggled last week without their SR Center Allan Ali, who is out again this week, and they’ll likely be without their most dynamic RB Bentley who came back soon last week. UCF’s got some dudes on that defensive line and rank 34th in sack %. SMU played their first two defenses in the top 50 the last two weeks and lost both games. I could see the same happening this week.
UCF also wants to run the ball, it shortens the game, they don’t play nearly as fast as Memphis and I don’t think that’s being taken into consideration here. I think that gives us more value in the #. SMU’s defense has been great against the run, which is the strength of UCF’s offense, but a closer look reveals they have played only two top 50 rushing offenses, and UCF is the best ranking 28th when we average ypc, and epa rush offense. The average rank of the other rushing offenses faced is 90.6. TCU ran for 170 yards 5.67ypc, SMU won that game, but TCU’s defense is awful. North Texas outside top 50 in EPA, but inside top 50 in rushing ypc, ran for 125. UCF brings the best defense that SMU has faced all year, as well as the best rushing offense. That is value at +7.
