Pittsburgh -6.5 2.2% play
This is a rough situation for North Carolina who came off the rugged game at Notre Dame to host Top 10 Wake Forest, trail by 14 in the 4th quarter and come back and win, and go on the road to face Pitt, who is leading the division on a short week. Not to mention that North Carolina has not been a good road team under Mack Brown, and even worse going 1-8 in night games away from home since Mack Brown took over. Sam Howell has run the ball 38 times the last 2 weeks, and I don't know if he gets through this game. His offensive line is the worst in Power 5 giving up 34 sacks, and they are 121st in sack % allowed, while Pitt ranks 14th in sack %. Pitt is easily the best defense North Carolina has faced this season, the next 3 are Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Notre Dame (without their best defender), and they went 0-3 in those games losing by 10, 10, and 23, and scoring 11.9 points less than their season average.
Pitt's offense has cruised all year and they need this game, because they can't afford to lose and be tied with Miami who has a tie breaker, and they have Virginia in 9 days. I was impressed with the way Pitt came back after losing against Miami. This being a night game and losing the last time out at home, I think they'll be focused and they have the match up advantages. North CArolina's defense is really bad, they rank 109th in success rate defense, 98th in epa run defense and 94th in epa pass defense. Pitt has averaged 49.5 ppg against bad defenses like this. I don't know that they get their tonight, but I don't htink they'll need to. Pitt also #3 in 20+ yard plays this season while North Carolina is 106th allowing 20+ yard plays. Sam Howell home away splits are bad, 17/3 TD/INT ratio at home, and 4/4 on the road, and one of those games were on a neutral field. I also don't think Pitt will be shy about running it up late, as they need some style points for Kenny Pickett and the Heisman.
