Auburn +4.5 2.2% play
Exactly who has Texas AM beat other than the big win against Alabama in which they were out gained by over 140 yards? Kent State (-1.1 YPP), Colorado (-2.3 YPP), New Mexico (-1.4 YPP), Missouri (-0.6 YPP), and South Carolina (-0.6 YPP), Alabama (+1.7 ypp) and they lost to Arkansas and Miss State (+0.1). The Alabama win was certainly impressive, but they were out gained in that game. Their average opponent YPP differential is -0.4. Auburn meanwhile is +0.9, against a challenign schedule of opponents +0.28.
Auburn has very quietly been playing great football and nobody is talking about it. They lost 34-10 to Georgia, but if Bo Nix receivers don’t drop those balls it could have been a completely different game. Maybe nobody is talking about it, because there is no Gus Malzahn coaching controversy? Bo Nix has played extremely well on the road this year and he’s not getting any credit. Possibly the best thing Bryan Harsin has done as a HC was bench Nix against Georgia State. The drops his receivers had earlier in the year seem to have faded, Bo Nix footwork has dramatically improved and he gets another opportunity to prove people wrong.
From a statistical perspective Auburn is the better offense and has faced the tougher schedule. Nothing wrong with losing at Penn State in a white out, but being in that game late, and losing to Georgia at home. I think the Aggies are getting far too much credit for that win over Alabama. This Texas A&M is nothing special, and while Zach Calzada has played better of late, he’s still nothing special completing just 55.3% of his passes, 6.6 yards per pass attempt 12 TD / 7 INT ratio. Aggies rank 77th in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO, while Auburn ranks 17th. I think these teams are pretty even, and the game will go down to the wire. A&M’s defense has been mostly a wall, but where they have shown vulnerabilities is in their run defense specifically against mobile QB’s, which Bo Nix is. Colorado’s Lewis had 76 rushing yards, KJ Jefferson had 50 in their 20-10 win, Kent State’s Crum had 60. Nix the last two years has run the ball 23 times for 87 yards against A&M. Nothing special, but the difference is he has developed as a passer, and that adds another dynamic to this game. Bo Nix is clearly the better QB here.
I don’t really see this glaring edge that A&M has in the game other than they have a bye, and they beat Alabama. You could say Auburn dominated Arkansas while Arkansas dominated Texas A&M. Auburn won’t be phased by the environment at night at A&M. They have gone into Death Valley and came back and won, played extremely well at Penn State in a white out, and won in front of 73K fans at Arkansas 38-23.
