Okl St / West Virginia Under 49 2.2% play

This has been a defensive game the last two years, and I think it remains that way this year.  West Virginia’s defensive strength is their run defense, and Oklahoma State wants to run the ball 62% of the time.  Oklahoma State’s offense has really struggled on the road scoring just 21 at Boise, 21 at Iowa State, and the 32 at Texas was a bit misleading. 

West Virginia has put up points in back to back weeks, but Oklahoma State’s defense poses a different threat.  Against Iowa State they also played nearly a perfect game going 9-15 on third down, and 4-5 in the red zone.  I don’t think that will continue, and Oklahoma State has held this offense in check the last two years.  Oklahoma State ranks 33^rd in success rate defense, 14^th in epa run defense, and 19^th in epa pass defense.  West Virginia is 110^th in seconds per play, and I think we are getting an inflated line based on recent results form both teams including Oklahoma State’s 55 points a week ago against a bad Kansas team. West Virginia is also elite in red zone defense allowing just 35% TD’s, while Oklahoma State checks in at 50%, and both teams are outside the top 50 in explosive offense while the defenses both rank in the top 30 in explosive plays allowed.