Army +3 -115 2.5% play
Low total here and the total has gone under 39-9-1 the last 49 meetings. This game will be on a neutral field in Arlington Texas. I think that will help Army as they won’t have to travel to play at elevation, which they typically had problems with in the past when traveling on the road to face Air Force. I think Jeff Monken has sort of figured out Air Force, and Army has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings, and the last 4 have been decided by 3, 4, 3 pts. Looking at the past 3 match ups between these two I don’t really see any glaring difference that would allow Air Force to win this one going away. Army has faced a far tougher schedule, and while they are off 3 straight losses, that’s giving us extra value here. The last three games were against Ball State, last year’s MAC Champion, Wisconsin, and Wake Forest, the #9 team in the country. They also played all 3 teams tight, and had to do it without their leading rusher, and QB Christian Anderson. It’s no surprise that 5 turnovers happened over those 3 games. Anderson has been practicing and will play against Air Force. Last year Anderson rushed 18 times for 85 yards vs. Air Force, and in 2019 he missed the game and Army lost.
Haazig Daniels is not 100% and is questionable, but will likely go at QB for Air Force, and last year he threw 3 interceptions against Army. Army’s defense looks worse than last year overall, but I think some of that relates to the strength of competition. They have faced two top 10 ypp offenses already. This will be an entertaining game, and if Air Force wins they’ll get the Commander-N-Chief Trophy, but I trust Jeff Monken. Air Force had and extra week to prepare last year and lost 7-10, in 2017 Monken had an extra week to prepare and they beat Air force 21-0. Both teams come into the game with extra time and I think Monken is the better coach. Army has outgained Air force by over 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 match ups and are +5 TO margin.
