Nebraska +14.5 1.1% Free play
Buy low situation on Nebraska. If you take away the name, and look at the stats Nebraska should not be a 14.5 point dog at home. They are +1.7 ypp against an opponent ypp diff of +0.125. Oregon is +1.3 against +0.11. Ohio State ranks 10th in rushing ypc defense, but they have faced an average rush ypc ranked 82. The two teams that were good at running the ball scored 31 and 35 points against them in Oregon and Minnesota. Adrian Martinez has to play his best game and avoid the turnovers for Nebraska to win this game, and possibly save Scott Frost’s job.
Ohio State has shown some weaknesses over the season. They have struggled against mobile QB’s, Anthony Brown had 10 carries for 65 yards. Martinez is better at running the ball, and Nebraska has never had issues running the ball on Ohio State the last two years. Ohio State also has had trouble guarding TE’s and the middle of the field. Nebraska’s Austin Allen should have a big game here. Nebraska ranks 26th in epa run defense. Ohio State really struggled on OL vs. Penn State running the ball in the red zone as they went 1-6. Nebraska has been very good in red zone defense especially at home where they have held opponents to just 38%. There are a lot of great things at play here to think that Nebraska will stay in this game. They have lost 6 games, but all six have been by single digits with 4 of those 6 on the road. They’re at home here, and will have a chance to pull of a major upset. We should get max effort from Nebraska.
