Boise State -2.5 2.2% PLAY
Colorado State has not beaten anyone, and they’re 0-10 vs. Boise State, with an average spread of 17.6 points, but why is the spread only 2.5 points? Boise has lost 4 games this season, but Colorado State lost to Vanderbilt at home for cyring out loud. Boise State has by far played a tougher schedule with BYU, Oklahoma St, and UCF (healthy) in their non-conference schedule. All 4 of Boise State’s losses came against good offenses, and Colorado State just does not constitute as a good offense. They rank 87th in ypp, 83rd in ypc, 95th in success rate, there Is not a single category that they rank top 50 in. They want to run the ball but they rank 110th in epa run.
Colorado State’s defense especially the defensive line has been great with 30 sacks they rank 3rd in ypp defense, and 2nd in sack %, but who have they played? The average epa pass offense ranks 93rd. Boise State has a QB, they protect him pretty well and they rank 50th in epa pass offense and that has come against a very challenging group of defenses on the year. Boise State off a bye here, and 3-0 ATS on the road. I think they’ll be able to stop the run, and move the chains on offense with their passing game. Colorado State has held opponents to 26% on third down, but the average opponent third down offense converting only 33%. Boise comes into the game converting 45.71% of their third downs. HC Steve Addazio is just not a great coach and he threw his players under the bus after the loss at Utah State last week. Ironically Utah State was the best passing offense they faced all year and they rank 81st in QB Rating.
