Virginia +2.5 3.3% play
Bronco Mendenhall return to Prov where spent more than a decade coaching BYU. Mendenhall only left, because he wanted the University to join the Big 12 and not remain Independent. Now BYU is going to the Big 12. Whether he holds any animosity, I don’t know, but I know that BYU was near and dear to his heart and had family who played for the BYU. This game clearly will mean a bit extra to him.
BYU is ranked, but I don’t think they are quite as good. They’re getting a ton of credit for their 4-0 record vs. the PAC12, but this is a different type of match up against Virginia who has arguably the best QB in the nation in Brennan Armstron, and they are playing FAST, ranking 27th at 23.4 seconds per play. BYU’s pass defense has shown vulnerabilities, and they really have not played anybody that passes the ball 65% of the time so I expect this will be a bit of a culture shock. Washington State passes 58% of the time but BYU got them the week after their HC was fire and they only won by 2. Washington State also plays slow, offering BYU plenty of time to regroup defensively. Baylor who put 38 points up on BYU, also plays very slow, Utah, Arizona State also very slow. This will be a big challenge for BYU’s defense, as Virginia is 15th in success rate, 18th in epa run offense, 13th in epa passing offense. Virginia is also #1 in the nation in 10+ and 20+ yard plays while BYU is 105th in allowing 10+ yard plays.
Virginia’s defense has been bad, because of their offense, but they have been great in red zone defense allowing just 44% TD’s. If they can avoid the big plays here, and I think they can do a better job than they have, because Bronco is very familiar with this coaching staff that was here under him, and he recruited Jaren Hall. Virginia is flying under the radar and so is their QB Brennan Armstrong. They have a bye after this game, and a lot to prove in my opinion and I expect them to win this game outright.
