North Carolina +3.5 3.3% play
This is the first game North Carolina is not a favorite this year and while it has been a very disappointing year they get a chance here off the bye to have some positive momentum by going into Notre Dame and winning. This is not the same Notre Dame team as last year as they rank 96th in ypp, and North Carolina’s defense is actually improved compared to last year’s unit. They rank 60th in ypp against an average opponent ypp offense 57. Compare that to last year’s North Carolina defense ranking 70th, vs an avy ypp off 72.
North Carolina’s offense has taken a step back, but they are playing with no pressure here. They’re not expected to win, and I think they can have some success. This is by far the best offense Notre Dame has faced to date, and we have seem some vulnerabilities this season with this defense. They were actually outgained last week vs. USC, they gave up 291 passing yards to Purdue, 297 to Cinci, and 299 to USC. Now they have to play without Kyle Hamilton, a consensus top 10 pick in the NFL draft next year. Notre Dame held USC to 16 points, but North Carolina runs a different offense with 13% more runs in their RPO heavy attack. North Carolina also off the bye, and should be putting all their effort into this game. They had an extra week to prepare in last year 17-31 loss, but so did Notre Dame, and Notre Dame was undefeated. Here Notre Dame is off their rivalry game with USC, and they just aren’t the same team. I think this will be a tight game and North Carolina will have a chance to win the game outright. At worse they have a chance for the backdoor cover late.
