Iowa +3.5 1.1% Free Play
I feel like we are getting an extra point of value here. Iowa lost to Purdue, and Wisconsin beat Purdue so it seems so easy to just take Wisconsin here. I’m not going to over react to recency bias as Wisconsin has always dominated Purdue, and Purdue under Jeff Brohm has dominated Iowa. I’m sure if Purdue played Wisconsin first then Iowa things would have been a little different.
The total is as low as you will see at 36, and that just makes the 3.5 much more valuable. Points will be at a premium with these two stout defenses I will look at some of the intangibles or hidden factors in this game to be that more valuable as well. Iowa has two major advantages in this game in addition to coming off a bye. They rank 2nd in forcing turnovers at 20% of opponent possessions ending in TO’s. Wisconsin’s offense ranks 126th in percentage of their possessions ending in a TO at 18.8%. Special Teams is another huge facto here for as Iowa ranks 2nd in overall special teams while Wisconsin ranks 90th, and have had issues with muffed punts, and have given up a kickoff return TD.
I also think Iowa has the edge at QB with Petras who has not been amazing, but Graham Mertz has been completely awful this year and Wisconsin ranks 129th in epa pass offense. I like Iowa’s offense to come up with some creative ways to score some points in this game especially with extra time to prepare. Iowa is 15-9 ATS since 2006 with extra time to prepare averaging 28.4ppg, and have had only 5 games where they scored 14 points or less.
