Rutgers -120 3% play
This is about as poor of a situation as a team could be in with Illinois off a 9 OT game, and a huge upset over Penn State as a 24.5 point dog facing a team coming off a bye. I also like Rutgers in the match up as Rutgers ranks 25th in epa run defense, and that has come against an average opponent epa run offense ranking 47.8. All Illinois can do is run the ball, and while they rank 42nd in epa run, against a tough schedule they are just 1-3 when facing a top 50 run defense. Rutgers held two run first opponents who have better rushing attacks in Syracuse and Michigan to season lows in rushing yards and points, and both of those games were on the road.
Syracuse only managed 7 points -23pts off their season average, and they rushed for only 67 yards and 2.23 ypc, which is -175 yards and -3.43 ypc from their season average. Michigan managed only 20 points -17.7 off their season average, and 112 rushing yards which was -141 yards off their season average. Both of those offenses have better passing offenses, and better run defenses than Illinois. If that holds true in this game Illinois will score in the single digits. Now I know I’m cherry picking two teams, but Syracuse and Michigan are the closest to Illinois. Rutgers did struggle stopping the run in their two games before the bye, but it was clear they were just worn out from the 3 game streak of having to play 3 TOP 10 teams in Michigan, Ohio St, and Michigan St.
Rutgers offense should be able to move the ball a bit here in my opinion. While they have struggled at time it is closely related to the strength of schedule. Illinois has been solid on defense, but they have had issues containing mobile QB’s. Charlotte’s QB who is not very mobile rushed for 35 yards, Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong had 31 yards on only 5 carries. Adrian Martinez had 111 yards, and UTSA’s Frank Harris had 33 on 8 carries. Rutgers, QB Vedral should be able to score some points here and I feel Illinois is going to really struggle offensively.
