South Florida +10 3.3% play

I'm not at all impressed with East Carolina's near upset over Houston last week in OT.  Houston has played an average opp YPP differential of -0.9.  Meanwhile South Florida has had a tough schedule having faced NC State, Florida, BYU And SMU all positive in YPP differential and ranked at one time or another.  Houston also had SMU on deck that they were likely looking forward to.  I think South Florida who is 100th in seconds per play is going to be able to establish the run here against an EAst CArolina defense that ranks 82nd in ypc.  Marshall, UCF, and App State all able to run the ball well, and expect South Florida who is 5-0 at ECU, and winners of 9 of their last 11 to be in this game.  EAst Carolina also had the 5 hour delay at Houston and didn't get back until the morning on Sunday, which threw off their routine in a short week.