Fresno State -3 3.3% Free Play
First of all I think we are getting some line value here based on Nevada’s win at Boise, which was a bit misleading when you factor they were +3 in TO margin. Fresno State also far better team up and down when we put them next to Boise. Fresno has the more impressive road win at UCLA.
Fresno’s offense likes to pass the ball, and Nevada is not good against the pass. They’ve faced one team that can pass the ball and Boise lit them up for 388 yards 4 TD’s and 1 INT. Even New Mex State ranks 106th in epa pass defense passed for 425 yards 3TD’s and 0INTs. Nevada is going to also pass the ball 63% of the time, and they have a supposed NFL QB in Carson Strong who is not 100% right now. Nevada really has not played a balanced defense like Fresno. Fresno is 14th in success rate defense, 22nd at QB sack %, they’re 45th vs. the run, and 10th in epa pass defense. Kansas State very good run defense, but struggles vs. the pass held them to 17 points. Fresno also played extremely well at Oregon only losing by a TD and they’re home here.
