Iowa State -6.5 -120 2.5% play
We have an undefeated and #9 team in the country on the road against a 4-2 unranked team and they are a TD dog and they both play in the Power 5. I’m going with the Iowa State side here as they are clearly the better team from a metric perspective. Oklahoma State should have lost last week as they were down 17-3 with Texas in the red zone, and Texas threw a pick six with 5 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter, a 14 point swing in the game, and Texas just ran out of gas from the week before against Oklahoma as Oklahoma State scored 16 4th quarter points to pull the upset. I have tremendous respect for Gundy and we have backed them several time already this year, but this is just not the spot in my opinion.
Iowa State’s two losses were very misleading and now they don’t look as bad as Baylor has really been great, and Iowa was just the #2 ranked team, and Iowa State outgained those two teams by 166 yards, and 194 yards. Iowa State’s biggest issues have been special teams and TO margin, and it could hurt them again here, but I don’t think it will. Iowa State is a very balanced team top 20 in all other categories and one of the few teams in the top 10 in epa/play offense and defense.
Oklahoma State’s offense ranks 95th in ypp offense, and 92nd in success rate, and while Jaylen Warren has been a beast running the ball they’ve gone up against a weak opponent defense ranking on average 74.2. When we look at the defenses this team has played they have only faced one team that ranks top 50 in epa pass or run defense. That was Baylor who ranked 36th in epa pass defense, but 77th in epa run defense. Spencer Sanders in that game threw 3 INT, but Oklahoma State still escaped with the victory. Iowa State is top 20 in both run and pass defense, and Sanders is going to have to be great to cover this spread. This is just the third time in his career he’s facing a defense that is top 50 vs. the run and pass on average, and previous 2 games he has 2 passing TD’s and 3 INT.
Iowa State’s offense is very experienced and they remember losing the last two years to Oklahoma State. I think they have a very good home field advantage and with a chance to “upset” a top 10 team the team is very aware of the spread and I think they will definitely want to cover it here.
