App State +5 3.3% play
Camerun Peoples is questionable at the moment, and I think he plays here, but if he doesn't we will play this for a middle in live wagering. If he does play we may add some on the ML before kick.
Coastal Carolina is getting far too much credit here they were a 3 point favorite last year at home, and although they finally beat App State 34-23, the final score indicated App State lost that game with 3 Zac Brown Intereceptions. Now Coastal who is #14 due to the fact that they have not played anyone is a 4.5 point road favorite at App State where they are 0-5. I love the fact that App State is also off a loss to a very good Lafayette team, but taht's why we are getting the points as this spread has shifted an entire TD in on year. It just does not make sense to me.
Coastal's strength of schedule can not be ignored. They are +3.7 ypp differential, but their average opponent ypp differential is -2.44. Compare that with App State who is +0.3 against an average opponent ypp differential of +.04. App State has played teams like Miami, Marshall, and Lafayette, while Coastal's toughest opponent is a down Buffalo team that is a run first unit similar to App State. Coastal gave up 5.6 yards per carry in that game and only won the game by 3. When we compare Buffalo and App State, App State is better in nearly every category on offense and defense, and they have a far superior special teams ranking 25th compared to Buffalo's 110th ranking.
Coastal on paper looks like they have no weaknesses, but there is noise in their run defense numbers, where they rank 34th in defensive ypc, but 75th in epa run defense. That has come against an average rushing ypc offense ranking 90.6. Their overall offense which ranks 2nd in ypp has faced an average defense ranking 123.4. They literally have played all the worst defenses in the country who love to give up explosive plays. So that has made them look far better in my opinion. Here are the rankings for their opponents they have faced in terms of explosive plays allowed, 118th, 98th, 98th, 94th, and 115th. App State did a good job on defense against Coastal last year on the road and limited their top two targets Heiligh and LIkely.
In my podcast I mentioned I did not trust Chase Brice. Well he is out performing what Zac Smith did last year so far, and Zac Smith had 3 interceptions in the game last year. Coastal Carolina has not been forcing any turnovers with 2 all year and they rank dead last in TO % per posession.
