North Carolina -7.5 2.2% play
The Tar Heels are off a loss to Florida State as a 18 point favorite. They lost to Florida State last year as well and bounced back by kicking the shit out of a ranked NC State team and they also beat Miami with Deriq King 62-26. King is out for the year with a shoulder injury, and that’s huge for North Carolina, because their biggest defensive issue is giving up rushing yards to opposing QB’s. ON the year 348 yards rushing and 7 rushing TD’s to opposing QB’s. Van Dyke is not a threat on the ground, and while he played decent vs. Virginia their pass defense is very poor and he still only completed 51% of his passes.
For North Carolina really the only thing that’s beating their offense is a good pass rush. They struggled against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech both ranked top 35 in sack %. Miami ranks 98th in sack %, and they have allowed 48% conversions on third down. Miami is off the bye here, but I honestly am not afraid of Manny Diaz as a head coach. This is a team that has gotten worse since he has taken over. This isa team ranking 111th in TO margin, 111th in epa run offense, 90th in QB rating. I think they’re getting a pissed of North Carolina team. Mack Brown has indicated that practice has been good this week, and I see them putting a double digit victory over Miami here in front of their home crowd.
