Purdue +11.5 3.3% play
This is the 7th straight week of playing football for Iowa, and they just come off a monster game against Penn State, where they were very lucky to win. Purdue is off a bye, and Jeff Brohm has been excellent in putting together an offensive game plan after a bye he average +7points from what the opponents gives up on the season, which would put them at 20 points here. Jeff Brohm is also 3-1 vs. Iowa since being at Purdue, and he has put up points 24, 24, 20, and 38. Part of the reason is Purdue is not afraid to pass and go over the top of this Iowa pass defense, which actually will be without their best corner Riley Moss who leads the nation with 4 INT’s. David Bell is one of the best WR in the nation, and Iowa has had a tough time stopping him. Las tyear he had 13 receptions 121 yards, and the year before he had 13 for 197.
Offensively Iowa ranks 114th in ypp, 107th in rushing ypc, and 79th in QB rating. Purdue’s defense is very under rated ranking 28th in ypp defense, 13th in QB rating defense, 50th in rushing defense. I think the defense will keep them in this game, and I trust Purdue’s offense more than I trust Iowa’s. Purdue has really held Iowa’s rushing in check over the past 4 years holding them to just 3.57 ypc, and this year they rank 14th in epa run defense while Iowa ranks 119th in epa run offense. Iowa is going to have to try to pass it here, but Purdue 15th in epa pass defense. I don’t see how or why Iowa should be a double digit favorite here.
The biggest issue here is turnovers as Purdue ranks 111th in TO’s they have to take care of the ball and if they do I think they have a shot at pulling the outright upset. Purdue had the ball late in the 4th with a chance to tie at Notre Dame and if they didn’t lose David Bell they probably lose that game by single digits.
