Minnesota +8.5 / Notre Dame +8 3.3% play
Minnesota +8.5 - Major value here with Minnesota after losing to a bad Bowling Green team as a 30 pt favorite. Purdue has major injuries to deal with here, and it’s unknown if they’ll get their star WR David Bell back who suffered a concussion in the Notre Dame game. Purdue’s offense is totally different without him, and they are already going to be without top 2 RB, and it looks like they may even be without their second leading receiver TE Payne Durham who is also in concussion protocol. On the defensive side they are without starting CB, and DT Branson Deen is also in concussion protocol. The QB situation is unknown as HC Jeff Brohm has a bit of a QB controversy, but neither option looks great at this moment as Purdue has had TO issues and rank 98th in TO Margin.
Minnesota has their own issues, but they are a bit healthier here and PJ Fleck is 3-1 against Jeff Brohm. Minnesota has been very one dimensional, but their running game has been better against P5 opponents having their best days against Ohio State and Colorado’s defenses. Purdue is the best run defense they have faced so far, but last week against Illinois they showed some weakness giving up 175 yards. Minnesota is the biggest offensive line that Purdue has faced so far, and Trey Potts has been on fire since taking over for Ibrahim.
I think Minnesota is a little more capable passing the ball than they showed last week. Tanner Morgan is a guy that takes care of the football and they rank 40th in TO margin. They also rank better in EPA/pass against tougher opponents than Purdue. Minnesota passing offense ranks 58th, to Purdue’s 59th, but Minnesota has faced defenses on average ranking 61 in epa/pass defense, while Purdue has faced an average epa pass defense ranking 84th. So I think Minnesota is actually the more complete offense. Defensively I give a small edge to Purdue, but we haven’t really seen them against a physical offensive line like Minnesota’s and I think Minnesota can control the game. With a low total getting up over several key numbers is just too juicy to pas sup.
Notre Dame +8
We have a low total of 49.5 here, and Notre Dame was just -3.5 favorite before last week’s games so now they move 5 points, and I’m adding another 6 points of value. Jack Coan is probable at QB for the Irish, and I think while Notre Dame has had some misleading wins, Cinci also had a very misleading win against Indiana. Notre Dame is 5-0 straight up and ATS their last 5 games as a home dog, and I have to think they are feeling disrespected at this point. Notre Dame, DC Marcus Freeman was the DC at Cinci last year and should have a great game plan to limit Cinci’s offense and I wouldn’t be surprised if Desmond Ridder makes some costly mistakes. Either way I think this is a close game with neither team getting margin.
