New Mexico -1 5.5% NCAF POD

I think the wrong team is favored here and New Mexico may go off as a favorite.  They are 0-3 ATS, and that automatically gives us value, but they are a team that just got shutout by Texas A&M and now face a UTEP team off a bye.  Both teams played New Mexico State, and while on paper it looks like UTEP is the better team, New Mexico played a more complete game. 

New Mexico will have the best player on the field in Terry Wilson at QB, the transfer from Kentucky, and he should be much more comfortable than he was a week ago at A&M.  Wilson has been solid this year 5td / 1 int, and goes up against a pass defense that has just 8 INT’s in the last 3 seasons.  In fact UTEP has been negative TO margin 6 straight seasons and are already -5 this year, while New Mexico is +4. 

UTEP also has a run heavy rushing offense, while New Mexico is only allowing 85 yards rushing per game, and really played well against A&M’s offense holding them in the red zone to FG’s in 2 of their 4 trips.  I think Terry Wilson gets comfortable and dominates this game.

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