App State -7 2.2% play
Boht of these teams have a common opponent in East Carolina and both teams handled them similarly and struggle din the 4th quarter. Marshall completely fell apart and lost by 4 blowing a 17 point lead, while App State won by 14. Marshall had 3 key turnovers in the game, and I just don't trust this team on a short week to go into App State, a very difficult place to play and play their best game. This is a team that 9 turnovers in 3 games, and ranking 95th in rushign success rate on defense. That's just not a great recipe for going on the road and getting a victory against an App State team that loves to run the ball. Marshall's defensive strength is their ability to get after the QB, with 17 sacks, but App State ranks 22nd in protecting the QB, and I think the ability to run will allow them to continue that success.
This is also a big revenge game for App State, a team that has 15 super seniors. They have 10 returning starters on defense, and they lost this game last year 17-7 getting out played in the trenches. Marshall just does not seem like the same defense as last year under the new coaching staff. Giving up 42 points to EAst CArolina, a offense that really has not looked good this year is quite concerning. Add that with Marshall's QB Grant Wells who has more INT than TD passes this year and was only 11-25 0TD/ 1 INT vs. App State at HOME a year ago, and I think you have a recipe for the home favorite here. App State has also been better against the run than the stats have suggested. They gave up 175 yards rushing against Miami, but 79 of those came against QB D'eriq King. Grant Wells is not going to pull of anything like that in this game. Marshall's offense also has been relying on the explosive plays ranking 6th in the country, but I think that's partially due to the level of competition that they have faced, Navy, NC Central, and ECU. App State is 8-2 vs. C-USA teams, and the Sun Belt which is 58-68 lifetime has really turned the tables the last 4 years they have gone 24-10 against the C-USA with margins of victories well over a TD!
