Northwestern +18.5 1.1% Free Pick

Indiana is probably the closest comparable opponent for Ohio State.  Northwestern has the better defense, and believe it or not Northwestern’s passing offense is a bit better from an EPA perspective than Indiana. I don’t believe Northwestern has the athletes that Indiana has, but it’s worth noting as a former Indiana QB Ramsey will try to upset Ohio State here.  Ohio Sate’s weakness is their pass defense, and they don’t have quite the explosive rushing attack as last year, so can they win with margin against a very good defense?  A defense that is holding opponents to 27% TD percentage in the red zone.  Northwestern’s defense ranks 9^th in YPP allowed, and their strength is passing defense, ranking 2^nd in EPA pass defense.  I think Northwestern can hang tough here, and I like that this game is an early game, and Ohio State really doesn’t have to win with margin to get into the College Football Playoff.