Oregon +3 3.3% play
Oregon probably does not deserve to be here, but with Washington having to cancel due to Covid they find themselves in the PAC 12 Championship. Due they relish the opportunity to upset USC, who has a shot at the college football playoff? I think USC is an over rated team, and we are getting the team with the better numbers catching points. The biggest thing that separates these two teams is the turnovers, and Oregon has had a ton of issues with turning the ball over, and not taking it away ranking 123rd in TO margin compared to USC who ranks 3rd.
Oregon is +1.5 ypp vs. an opponent average ypp -0.42, compared to USC who is only +0.1 against an opponent average ypp diff of -0.77. USC also extremely one dimensional ranking 101st in ypc and they runt he air raid, which the more you see it the better you are at defending it. Oregon saw it twice last year against USC and Washington State and went 2-0. The strength of this defense is the pass defense, but it’s the offense that really makes me confident in the play as Oregon ranks 17th in rushing ypc and 11th in QB rating. When USC faces a balanced offense that can run and pass they are 3-4 the last 3 seasons, and easily could be 0-7, with only two of those wins by more than a field goal. Last week, and a game against Utah without their starting QB. Clay Helton to me is just not a very good coach, and I think he’s only still around, because of OC Graham Harrell.
