Ball State +14 -120 buy ½ point 4.5 % NCAAF POD

Buffalo leads the nation in scoring, and are getting a lot of hype, but a closer looks reveals they have faced some really bad defenses.  ON average they have faced a YPP defense ranking 108.8, 97.8 in ypc defense, and 99 in QB rating defense.  Ball State’s strength is stopping the run they rank 42^nd in ypc defense, and 28^th in EPA run defense, and they have played by far the tougher schedule.

Buffalo’s opponent record is 6-18, and they have an average YPP differential of -0.98, while Ball State’s opponents are 15-19 and their opponent YPP differential is +0.11.  Aside from Ball State having the ability to at least slow Buffalo and Jarret Paterson down their offense can also stay on the field.  They are converting 48.8% of their third downs against some very good defenses at getting off the field.  They are sneaky good on offense ranking 19^th in success rate.  Buffalo has faced success rate offenses ranked 118^th, 96^th, 117^th, 116^th, and 2^nd.  Kent State who ranks 2^nd in success rate scored 41 points, but they play no defense.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ball State pull the upset here.

Where to find Freddy?