Virginia +3 3.3% play
This is an interesting game as you have a rivalry game to wrap up each team’s final game as both teams and players have indicated they do not want to play in a bowl game due to COVID and being able to see their families. You have Virginia on a 4 game win streak vs. Virginia Tech on a 4 game losing streak, and they’re getting points, which is a natural spot for the public to take the dog. The numbers guys are going to take Virginia Tech, but I don’t agree with it being the right side. I think you have the better coaching staff on the side of Virginia with Bronco Mendanhall, and Justin Fuente could be on his way out. There are rumors that the players don’t really like Fuente, because he interviewed for the Baylor gig last year.
The matchup has me liking Virginia along with the coaching and situation. Virginia finally got by Virginina Tech last year, and if they can do it again this year it would be a very big shift in the state for recruiting. Virginia Tech runs the ball over 60% of the time, but they’re facing a top run defense. Virginia ranks 34th in ypc allowed, and 42nd in EPA run defense. Virginia Tech has faced 4 top 50 rushing defenses and they have gone 1-3, with their only win coming all the way back in week 1 against NC State. Hendon Hooker is a threat running the ball at QB, but he hasn’t stayed healthy throughout games, and he had just 44 yards rushing on 21 carries in last years matchup.
On the flip side Virginia when they plays a bad run defense they are 5-1, which Virginia Tech certainly is ranking 105th in ypc run defense, and 118th in epa run defense. Virginia just seems to know how to win games when they can run the ball. That one loss to Wake Forest came without Brennan Armstrong who is critical to their game plan and one of the best unknown players in the country that people will get to watch tonight. Virginia against a top 50 run defense are 0-3, but again Virginia Tech has not stopped anyone, and I don’t see it changing here tonight.
Some other factors in this game you have to look at are the fact that Virginia Tech -4 TO margin over their last 3 games, while Virginia has forced 9 turnovers in their last 4 games. Virginia Tech 6 turnovers in their last 3 games as they faced 3 top 50 run defenses. Similarly, Virginia in their 4 losses were -9 TO margin, and one game was without Armstrong, and the other 3 against top 50 run defenses. The team that wins in the trenches wins this game, and I have to say it will be Virginia who has the better red zone defense holding opponents to 52% TD’s compared to Virginia Tech allowing 72%.
