Miami -3 2.2% play
This is a revenge game for Miami after last year’s shocking loss as they led by 5 late as Freshman Sam Howell converted on a 4th and 17. This time Miami is home, and will have 13,000 fans that are allowed into the Stadium to support them. HC Manny Diaz, said, “It was a loss that left a bad taste in our mouth.” JR. TE Brevin Jordan, That loss last year had me so upset, It’s just another hate game.” Mann Diaz was also fired by North Carolina’s HC Mack Brown at Texas back in 2013. While I think the revenge angle could be over blown it is definitely alive here on Saturday.
North Carolina has lost 3 games, and two were on the road, while they averaged 3.37 ypc in their losses and 6.18 ypc in their wins. Miami is a top 50 run defense, and has been battle tested. You could argue that only Notre Dame has a better run defense of the UNC opponents. They only faced 3 top 80 run defenses and went 1-2 in those games, while the one game they won they were +4 TO margin. Only one team had a balanced defense, and that was Notre Dame who held UNC to 17 points. Miami can stop the run and the pass, and it’s looking like they are getting some fresh bodies back from the COVID list on this side of the ball. Miami is 5-0 vs. top 50 rushing offenses.
North Carolina has a clear defensive weakness and that’s against the run where they rank 100th in EPA run defense. Miami is 4-0 against bottom run defenses winning by 26 ppg. Miami is quietly the better overall team that people forgot about, because they haven’t played in nearly a month before last week’s 48-0 win over Duke.
