Nebraska -10.5 1.1% Free Play

*55-38 59.1% Winners L93 Free NCAAF Picks *

I’m obviously higher on Nebraska than most people as we have backed them 3 times on the spread, and once in a teaser and have gone 3-1.  The one loss should have been a win, and this team is better than their record indicates.  79% of the money is on Minnesota here, and I don’t get that, because this is not last year’s Minnesota team, the defense is the worst in the country ranking 127^th in YPP defense, 127^th in success rate defense, and 127^th in EPA run defense, which is bad news against Nebraska who is a run first team.  I like that Scott Frost went back to Martinez who obviously gives them more balance, and he’s stringed together two great games.  Now he could be due for a bad game, but the thing that has hurt Nebraska most this year is turnovers, but bad defenses don’t force turnovers.  Minnesota has forced only 4 turnovers this season.

Also, worth noting is Minnesota’s best receiver Rashod Bateman opted out, and quit on his team to prepare for the NFL draft.  The obvious cliché is going to be, “you can’t blame the kid,” but you have to wonder where the rest of this team is for this game if you have had one player quit.  Minnesota -1.8 ypp in games this year and they have faced a far worse schedule. I see Nebraska scoring into the 40’s here, and I have no problem fading the popular dog.