I like Air Force here for various reasons. For one they come out of the stronger conference (by far) MAC #10, MWC #6 and they have performed better against better opponents beating 4 bowl teams. Western Michigan is 10-2 ATS this season, but the teams they have beat have been awful. Even Bowling Green and Central Michigan the two bowl teams they beat are some of the worst when it comes to rankings.
The first thing you have to look at in a game like this is whether or not Western Michigan can stop the run. Western Michigan gave up more than 5 yards per carry to every single team they faced ranked inside the top 50 in rushing and they lost all of those games as well. Sure preparing for the triple option is much easier when you have the extra time, but Air Force does have Kale Pearson back and the senior has the ability to throw the ball with 14 TD and 3 interceptions. Air Force is more balanced than most would think and I don't think Western Michigan will have a lot of success by the second half.
The last thing I looked at was each teams efficiency when it matters. So, third downs, red zone and Air Force is either equal or better in both offense and defensive categories and they did so against a tougher schedule. Air Force beat Navy, Nevada, Colorado State and Boise this year and they have experience playing on this blue turf and I think playing them as an under dog is the play.
