I will gladly take the under here and we are getting tremendous value here based on a few scenarios. First of all Colorado State has put up some points and Utah's defense the last two weeks of the season has looked average, but give Kyle Whittingham extra time to prepare for an offense and he usually shuts them down. Facing opponents with extra rest he held 3 power 5 conference opponents to an average of 18 points per game. Colorado State has had a very nice season, but their head coach left for Florida and they have faced some bad defenses along the way. Only 3 ranked in the top 70 and they averaged just 21 points against those never topping 24. I mean they faced 128th, 126th, 124th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective. You are going to put up points against those type of defenses. Utah is not as bad as they looked the last two weeks of the season and their defense will rebound.
For Colorado State it all starts with the passing game. In wins they have a 180 QB rating and in losses they have a 129. Utah has one of the best front seven's in the country and rank #2 in pass rush. Colorado State faced 4 teams with top 40 pass rushing units and they struggled against all 4 never scoring more than 24 points and going just 2-2. Now this will still be a tough game for Utah to win and that's why I won't play them ATS. However, the match up in their favor is Colorado State's rushing defense. Colorado State also lacks depth on their front and rank 81st in ypc run defense. Utah's offense with Devontae Booker should be able to run and pick up first downs while moving the clock. This team likes to win those low scoring game which I think this will be in the end.
