Nebraska +14 2.2% play
Still some 14's out there, and if your book allows you to buy a 1/2 point I think it's worth it to get it to -125. I also love that over 80% of the early money is on IOwa yet we haven't seen this # jump to 14.5 or higher.
Offesnively these two teams are nearly identical when it comes to success rate, and yards per play, but the biggest difference is Nebraska, which ranks 37th in success rate offense has faced an average success rate defense ranking 38th. Iowa on the other hand which ranks 24th, has faced 78.2. Nebraska had to play Ohio STate, and they should have beaten Northwestern , and they beat Penn STate, who Iowa just beat by 3 TD's, but that game was much closer than the final indicated.
With all that said I think we are getting some value here in your classic buy low sell high situation. Iowa was +3 TO margin, while Nebraska was -5 TO margin in their loss to Illinois, which was a very bad loss, and Scott Frost really needs a big win here, especially since they have not beaten Iowa in some time, but this was a 3 point game last year, and I think Nebraska can hang within a score.
Both teams are also run first teams, which I feel will shorten the game quite a bit. Iowa's run defense has been great, and that appears to be the mismatch since Nebraska relies heavily on their rushing attack, but I think they can have some ssuccess. Nebraska's ranks 35th in EPA rushign offense and that has come agaisnt some pretty stout defenses that rank on average 42nd, in EPA run defense. Now Iowa ranks 23rd, but their average opponent rushign EPA offense ranks 88.2. They faced Penn State without two of their starting RB's, and they gave up 144 yards to Minnesota's Moham Ibrahim and they have yet to face a rushing QB like Luke McCafrey who has run on every opponent thus far. I think Nebraska's defense can hang in this game as Iowa iscompletely one dimensional wiht their running game.
