Texas +1 3.3% play
Texas is 2 plays away from being undefeated, and I would argue that they have improved statistically more from last year to this year than Iowa State. Overall teams are pretty even and we are getting Texas as a slight dog at home, on senior day, Sam Ehlinger’s last home game, with Big 12 Championship trip on the line for both teams. Texas fully rested here with their game against Kansas canceled, and not to mention Tom Herman is 4-0 ATS vs. Matt Campbell.
Last year Texas lost by 2, but still covered the spread and that was with a defense that ranked 96th in YPP, and 87th vs. the pass. This year they have improved and continued to improve their defense ranking 28th in YPP, and 51st vs. the pass, but the biggest improvement has been vs. the run as they rank 18th, and 11th in EPA run defense. That is key to stopping Iowa State as they are led by Breece Hall at RB. Iowa State has been able to run on everyone, but they have only faced two teams in the top 50 in run defense, and Texas is better than both. One of those games they lost to Oklahoma State, and the final 24-21 was not as close as indicated as Iowa State got the back door TD trailing by 10.
Iowa State’s defense has faced just one top QB and they won the game, but gave up 30 points, and it was against Spencer Rattelr of Oklahoma, who honestly struggled late in games in the beginning of the season due to inexperience. Here they face Sam Ehlinger who has played well against Iowa State in previous years. Brock Purdy did not play well at Texas back in 2018 completing just 43% of his passes 0TD and 1 INT. Iowa State at this point is also had more turnover issues. Iowa State has had issues on special teams as well.
