Notre Dame -5.5 3.3% play
First of all lets talk motivation. This game matters to Notre Dame, because if they win it and win it in convincing fashion they could/should still make the college football playoff no matter what happens against Clemson.
I wanted to take the over here, but Notre Dame lost their Center Jarrett Patterson for the rest of the season, and they will be without starting RG Tommy Kraemer. I don’t know what that will do to the game plan with two weeks to prepare. It could change completely for Notre Dame and you could see them not play as fast, but rather control the ball and keep North Carolina’s offense off the field. I’m more confident in Notre Dame covering the spread, because of their defense.
It’s true Notre Dame got lit up by Clemson, and the defense has not faced a balanced offense other than Louisvile, which they held to 7 points, but that could have had more to do with the weather as there were 25mph winds, and Notre Dame struggled to score only putting up 12 points as well. Still, I think Notre Dame who has been very good in run defense will be able to make North Carolina one dimensional. The two games that North Carolina was unable to run the ball efficiently they lost by 3. Both of those opponents, Virginia and Florida State do not have the offense that Notre Dame has nor do they have a balanced defense as Notre Dame also ranks 8th in QB rating allowed, 11th in success rate defense allowed. This is the first balanced defense that North Carolina will face all year. North Carolina struggles to protect the QB ranking 90th in sack % allowed, and Notre Dame’s red zone defense which is stout should be the difference in this game.
Notre Dame will be able to score on maybe every possession. The weather looks perfect here, and the one game the offense did not show up there was weather issues at Louisville. North Carolina ranks 102nd in EPA run defense, 103rd in EPA pass defense. North Carolina has faced three teams that rank top 50 in passing offense, and none were as good as Notre Dame. They gave up 53, 21, and 45 points in those games. I think Notre Dame can score in the 40’s here if they want. I feel more confident in them winning this game by a TD or more.
