Eastern Michigan +7 -115 3% play

60% of the money on Toledo here, but the line has come down from 7.5 to 7 and 6.5 at some places.  Toledo playing their second road game in a row after a devastating loss to Western Michigan a week ago.  Eastern Michigan has faced the tougher schedule and both games were on the road they get to play at home here.  Eastern Michigan's opponents YPP differential is +1.15, while Toledo's opponent YPP differential is +.6 so I think we are getting some value because the states may not look as good.

However, despite just being 62nd in YPP, vs. Toledo's 39th, Eastern Michigan actually ranks 16th in success rate offense compared to Toledo's 43rd ranking. Eastern Michigan's defense also looks better statistically when you consider that Eastern Michigan held Kent State to 27 points in a 4 point loss and Kent State went on to score 62 and 69 points in their next two games.

I also have questions about Toledo's run defense which ranks 95th.  While they have faced a tough schedule, it's not as tough as the rushign offenses that Eastern Michigan has faced.  I believe Toledo's rushing defense will have issues containing Eastern MIchigan's QB Preston Hutchinson who ran for 104 yards against Ball state.