Georgia Southern -3 -115 - buy hook if you don't have -3
Georgia Southern is 1-2 in the SUn Belt while South Alabama is 2-0, this is much more important for GS who has faced tougher competition, and in tougher situations. Georgia Southern has played both of the best teams in the Sun Belt - Lafayette, and Coastal Carolina and they played them both on the road. Meanwhile, South Alabama has played 4 straight home games, and is now going on the road in a short week, which points to a major advantage for Georgia Southern. South Alabama two toughest opponents Tualne and UAB are not as good as Lafayette and Coastal Carolina in my opinion, and South Alabama played them both and lost both at home.
Georgia Southern's QB Shai Werts is probable for this game, and he leads an offense that ranks 17th in EPA rush offense as they run the ball 72% of hte time. South Alabama against UAB and Tulane at home gave up 203 yards and 190, and Georgia Southern should be able to run the ball here at home.
Other key factors here that I like is the fact we are getting line value as this line has dropped 3 points, so we are fading that steam, and South Alabama 4-1 ATS on the season coming off a misleading 38-14 blowout win over Louisiana Monroe gives us line value on their opponet. Against Monroe South Alabama helped their cause with a 95 yard interception returned for a TD, a missed FG by ULM, and two turnover on downs by ULM in South Alabama terriroty. You have a 14 point swing, 3 point missed FG, and 3-14 points taken off the board, which also offered huge momentum shifts for South Alabama in that game. I'm betting that South Alabama is not as good as advertised and are good for a clunker here on a short week. THey are also 0-6 straingt up and 1-5 ATS against Georgia Southern.
