Lafayette -3 3.3% play
The strength of this UAB team is their defense, and their ability to get to the QB and play pass defense. They rank 2nd in EPA pass defense, but that’s the not the style of Lafeytte, who likes to run the ball, and have a balanced offense. This is the most balanced offense that UAB will face this year even more so than Miami who ranks 56th in success on offense out of 77 teams. The one struggle that UAB has had over the years of success is defending good running teams. Against top 61 rushing teams UAB is just 3-5 with some ugly loses along the way. Their run defense looks to be worse than previous seasons as they rank 52nd in EPA rush defense against 77 teams. I think Lafayette has some value following a loss here, and after an 0-3 ATS run.
Lafayette really has played the tougher schedule and beat a good Iowa State team on the road with their special teams play. They should draw confidence with that, and they’ll be highly motivated going up against this UAB team that has won 21 straight at home. However, the schedule of those 21 teams is not great, and I believe the Cajuns have the recipe to give UAB’s defense issues. In 2019 UAB gave up 4.68 ypc in losses, and 2.71 ypc in wins, and in 2018 just 2.64ypc in wins, but 6.08 in losses. Does UAB have the ability to stop Lafayette’s running game, which ranks 17th in EPA rushing offense, and they’ve done that against very good defenses. I don’t think they do here.
Lafayette defensively should give UAB some issues as they rank 30th in EPA pass defense out of 77 teams, but that ranking has come against opponent passing offenses ranking on average 18.7. UAB starts a freshman QB in Bryson Lucero who is starting to get exposed. In his last two games 4 passing TD’s and 4 INT’s, UAB’s offense has given the ball up 10 times this season compared to Lafayette’s 4.
