Miss State +130 2% play

I believe this is a bad matchup for Kentucky, and it comes at the right time.  After MIss State defeated LSU, and then lost the following week as a 17 point favorite to Arkansas, we now have them as a dog again.  With 92% of the $ on Kentucky I'm more inclined to think this is MIss STate's game.  Kentucky may be the more desparate team, but Kentucky has proven over and over that they know how to lose games not win them.  Miss State's offensive strength is obviously passing the ball in Mike Leach's air raid offense, while Kentucky's pass defense ranks 74 of 75.  Flip side Kentucky's strength is running the ball, but Miss State's strength has been stopping the run on defense.  It feels to me that MIss State is only a dog here, because of last week.  I don't think the field goal will come into play based on how bad Kentucky has been in the red zone on defense.