Liberty +14.5 1.1% Free Play

Nearly 70% of the tickets and 80% of the money has rained in on Western Kentucky, and this line has gone over the key number of 14.5.  I really do not understand it, and I'm fading the steam here.  To me Western Kentucky does not deserve to be a double digit favorite, and their game where they nearly covered the spread against Louisvile a week ago was completely misleading.  They got 14 of their 21 points off of 5 yards of offense when they blocked two punts in the game.  Tyrone Pigrome is being touted as a positive for this Western Kentucky team, but I think he makes the offense completely one dimensional.

Liberty lost a ton of guys, and only return 9 starters, and did not get to play last week so I get why the line moved from 13 to 14.5, but it's not justified in my opinion.  If anything there is some film out there on Western Kentucky, and the defense struggled big time containing a Louisville offense that features a mobile QB in Cunningham.  LIberty brought in Malik Willis from Auburn, a mobile QB, and I trust Hugh Freeze as the head coach in his second year.  He's a good recruiter, and a good offensive coach, so I expect Liberty will be just fine offensively, and should be in this game.