Boston College +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

Just 25% of the money coming in on BC, because they are without their head coach, and AJ Dillon also not playing.  Dillon's backup David BAiley, is a brusing RB at 240lbs, that the team is excited for.  Bailey actually had more yards per carry than Dillon and still rushed for 816 yards.  He will be key in this game where the weather is going to play a factor.  Expect some wind and rain here, and with both teams running the ball over 60%, handicapping the running game is very critical.  Jeff Hafley, the new BC coach will also be in attendance, which is always a good thing for the players who play in a game like this.  They typically want to impress their new HC.

Boston College has been able to run the ball against everyone but Clemson and Notre Dame, who have superior talent to Cinci.  They faced six top 50 rush defenses and they averaged 226 yards per carry.  While Cincinnati ranks 27th in ypc, they rank 47th in rushing success defense, and a lot of their success was at home where they allowed 2.66 ypc, 4.52 ypc on the road.  They faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses like Boston College and allowed 195.8 yards per game and 4.74 ypc which is about 90th in the country.  They went 2-3 in those games, and in their two wins they actually were fortunate as they forced 9 TO's.  BC doesn't turn the ball over with just 11 on the year. I think this will be a close game, because BC will have success running the ball.  Cinci is also a very good rushing offense with a mobile QB, and BC's defensive weakness is in the secondary, which also makes this a good matchup for BC.  They rank 33rd in rushing success, defense.  They don't rank well from  YPC perspective, but that's because they are prone to giving up explosive runs, which Cinci really is not built on. 

This will be a close game, I don't see BC losing by more than a TD unless they turn it over and with 11 on the year, while Cinci has turned it over 20 times I don't expect they will lose the TO margin.  They also are top 10 in fewest penalty yards per game while Cinci ranks 129th.  I wouldn't be shocked to see BC pull the upset in front of their new HC. 

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