Wyoming -7 -115 2.2% play
This game reminds me of Cal vs Illinois last night where Cal is the better team getting nearly a TD, and they want to play slow, but the inferior team Illinois wants to play fast. This will give Wyoming's offense a boost and more points than they typically get, because they are going to have more posessions.
Georgia State has an excellent rushing team, but they are going up against Wyoming who sports the #1 rushing success defense, and the #6 rushing defense from a ypc perspective, and they are going to do it with their QB Dan Ellington who is playing with a torn ACL. Ellington had 603 rushing yards before the last 3 games that he played with a torn ACL and rushed for -5 yards and 0 TD's. They also converted on 12 of 39 third downs, and had been averaging near 50% before so this is a big injury, and a torn ACL doesn't just go away. Wyoming has a very good pass defense, and I think they'll force some turnovers in this game. Win the TO battle and cover the spread.
Wyoming's offense is a question too, but they are a very good rushing offense ranking 41st in ypc, and they are explosive. Goergia State outside the top 100 in run defense from a ypc perspective as well as explosive runs allowed. Georgia State also one of the worst red zone defenses in the nation, and again I mentioned they want to play fast. They could have a couple of three and outs early and Wyoming should be able to control this game in the trenches on both sides. It's worth mentioning that all of Georgia State's losses came by double digits with the exception of Texas State. All 4 of those teams have something inc common they were very good running teams all ranked in the top 40. While Wyoming ranks 41st, I think they are a bit better with when you consider the defenses they had on their schedule. They also break in a new QB here in freshman Levi Williams who broke off 79 yards on 15 carries against a very good Air Force defense.
