CMU/Miami Ohio Under 54.5 3.3% play
We have an inflated total here in my opinion due to the fact that Miami Ohio just gave up 41 points to Ball State, an offense that is very similar to Central Michigan, but Miami Ohio really had nothing to play for in the game and their QB got hurt. Central Michigan on the other hand has scored 40+ points in 5 of their last 7 games, which will get an inflated total as 6 of their last 7 games have gone over the total.
You have to factor in that both teams are bringing a top 50 defense to this MAC Championship game, and Miami Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country ranking 109th in yards per play, but they are in the MAC Championship game because of their defense. Central Michigan vs. top 50 defenses have averaged just 10.67 points per game. Miami Ohio has a balanced defense against the pass, and run, and they rank 14th in sack %. Central Michigan has averaged 40.5 points per game in their other 8 games, but that was against an average YPP def/ ypc defense, and opposing QB rating ranking 99th in the country.
Miami Ohio has struggled very much this season on offense and their QB Gabbert got hurt in last week’s game. I think he plays, but even with him in the game this offense is not very good. Against top 50 defenses they are just 1-3, averaging 16.5 points per game. Their one win was against Buffalo at home where they scored 34 points thanks to forcing 4 turnovers. They have only scored 30+ points twice, and in both games they forced turnovers with a combined total of 7 turnovers forced. Now it is possible Central Michigan might cough up the ball with a nation leading 23 fumbles on the year, but I would think they feel they can win this game if they don’t turn it over and I expect a conservative approach because of that.
This total is saying we will have a 34-27 final, but I don’t think Miami Ohio can score that many points, and I think Central Michigan will struggle at times in this game.
