Alabama -3 buy ½ point -125

I really do not trust Auburn’s QB Bo Nix to win this game at the moment, and every time Alabama comes into this game with one loss they just seem to dominate.  The last 4 times it has happened they have resulted in wins by 42-14, 49-0, 55-44, 29-13. Sometimes losing a game, and your star player gets a team truly focused, and I think that is what we have with Alabama here who is clearly the more talented team.  The biggest question is Mac Jones at QB? Luckily he has the best group of receivers in the nation. You could argue that Auburn’s great defense has not faced an offense as good as Alabama all season. The LSU game would be one to compare, and LSU only won by 3, but they put up over 500 yards of offense on Auburn’s defense.

 

Alabama’s defense is the group nobody is talking about.  There is inexperience, but they have not had to be relied on and that changes here.  The one thing I have been really impressed with is their ability to force turnovers. They have 25 gained on the season, which is the most in several years for Alabama.  This group lost the TO battle against LSU, and that is the main reason they lost that game in my opinion. They are +7 in conference games, and +5 in road games, while Auburn is just +1 at home, and rarely wins the TO battle in this matchup.  I think Bo Nix makes a mistake in this game, and Auburn has had an issue with getting out to fast starts in these big games this year. If they’re unable to do so Alabama has the balance on offense unlike Georgia to keep this game out of reach.


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