Louisville +3 1.1% Free Play 

ACC is down this year, and there is always an SEC bias, but Louisville has surprised many this season.  The only other time Kentucky faced a team with a running QB they lost giving up well over 100 yards rushing in a 15 point loss to Miss State.  Louisville actually has balance at the QB position and can throw a bit to, and I have to question this Kentucky team.  Who the hell have they beaten?

Honestly, Kentucky may not have a win against a bowl team.  Toledo with 6 wins, may not go bowling, and they beat Missouri who now has 6 wins, but they were playing without their QB and top WR.  So are we impressed with wins over Vanderbilt or a 4 point win over Arkansas?  Louisville has beaten 3 bowl teams in Virginia who is playing in the ACC Championship game, Wake Forest, Western Kentucky, a team that dominated that same Arkansas team.  

Kentucky's offense is very much one dimensional, and I think Scott Satterfield can have enough of a game plan to come up with something here and this should be a close game throughout.  Even when Louisville has played tough pass defenses they have put up points averaging 28 points per game in their 5 games vs. top 50 pass defenses.  Kentucky's run defense not as good ranking 100th in yards per carry, and again they haven't beaten a bowl team.